It organizes the public into nine distinct groups, based on an analysis of their attitudes and values. Even in a polarized era, the survey reveals deep divisions in both partisan coalitions. Pew Research Center now uses as the last birth year for Millennials in our work. President Michael Dimock explains why. The vast majority of U. Use this tool to compare the groups on some key topics and their demographics.
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Research Topics. Neither members nor non-members may reproduce such samples in any other way e. The addition of 2. For many, surprise gave way to charges of bungling or, more darkly, assertions of political manipulation. The BLS itself first flagged the existence of a reporting issue back in March, noting a flaw in the calculation of the unemployment rate. Dubbed a "misclassification error," it was responsible for producing an unemployment rate for May about 3 percentage points lower than it should have been, meaning the official rate should be Going back to March, the unemployment rate should have been 5.
The June 5 report triggered questions of how the misclassification error happened, how the unemployment rate is reconciled with the number of people claiming unemployment insurance benefits and who is ultimately considered unemployed in the official count. While a debate about the Trump administration's intentions with labor market data rages across blog posts and the Twittersphere, the simple takeaways appear to be that:. Groshen discussed with SHRM Online how the monthly unemployment rate is calculated and how the misclassifications occurred and said it would be "basically impossible" to tamper with the reporting or the data without detection.
Groshen: The unemployment rate is arrived at by means of a household survey of 60, U. Census Bureau. The process is hierarchical and mutually exclusive. First, the interviewers determine if the person [and others in the household] is employed or not. The basic question asked is "During the week that contains the 12th of the month, did you work for pay or profit?
Probing follow-up questions are meant to clarify the person's situation. If the person responds that they did not work for pay during that week, there are a series of questions to establish whether they are either unemployed or outside the labor force. The unemployed fall into basically two types: those actively looking for work or people on temporary layoff—a category which is usually small, but that's not the case now.
If someone is on temporary layoff, they have a strong expectation that they will be called back to work within the next six months. If you are either employed or unemployed, you are counted in the labor force. If you're neither of those, you are out of the labor force. The unemployment rate then is the sum of the number of unemployed people divided by the number of the people in the labor force.
SHRM Online: Can you explain how the official unemployment rate differs from what some call the "real" unemployment rate? Groshen: First, it must be understood that receiving unemployment insurance benefits is not a factor in determining the unemployment rate. The Census Bureau interviewers do not ask whether people have applied for benefits or are receiving benefits.
There is no relationship between the Department of Labor data on unemployment insurance benefits and the monthly BLS survey for the construction of the unemployment rate. The BLS shows 21 million people counted as unemployed. The unemployment rate has the virtue of being tried-and-true, having been applied consistently for 80 years. Passive methods of job search do not have the potential to connect job seekers with potential employers and therefore do not qualify as active job search methods.
Examples of passive methods include attending a job training program or course, or merely reading about job openings that are posted in newspapers or on the Internet. Workers expecting to be recalled from temporary layoff are counted as unemployed whether or not they have engaged in a specific job seeking activity. In all other cases, the individual must have been engaged in at least one active job search activity in the 4 weeks preceding the interview and be available for work except for temporary illness.
The questions used in the interviews are carefully designed to obtain the most accurate picture of each person's labor force activities.
Some of the major questions that determine employment status are as follows the bolded words are emphasized when read by the interviewers. Does anyone in this household have a business or a farm? Last week , did you do any work for either pay or profit? If the answer to question 1 is "yes" and the answer to question 2 is "no," the next question is: Last week , did you do any unpaid work in the family business or farm?
For those who reply "no" to both questions 2 and 3, the next key questions used to determine employment status are: Last week , in addition to the business did you have a job, either full or part time? Include any job from which you were temporarily absent. Last week , were you on layoff from a job? What was the main reason you were absent from work last week? For those who respond "yes" to question 5 about being on layoff, the following questions are asked: Has your employer given you a date to return to work?
If "no," the next question is: Have you been given any indication that you will be recalled to work within the next 6 months? If the responses to either question 7 or 8 indicate that the person expects to be recalled from layoff, he or she is counted as unemployed. For those who were reported as having no job or business from which they were absent or on layoff, the next question is: Have you been doing anything to find work during the last 4 weeks?
For those who say "yes," the next question is: What are all of the things you have done to find work during the last 4 weeks? If an active method of looking for work, such as those listed at the beginning of this section, is mentioned, the following question is asked: Last week , could you have started a job if one had been offered? If there is no reason, except temporary illness, that the person could not take a job, he or she is considered to be not only looking but also available for work and is counted as unemployed.
Some fictional examples of typical responses that may result in a person being classified as unemployed are:. The total unemployment figures cover more than the number of people who have lost jobs. They include people who have quit their jobs to look for other employment, workers whose temporary jobs have ended, individuals looking for their first job, and experienced workers looking for jobs after an absence from the labor force for example, stay-at-home parents who return to the labor force after their children have entered school.
Information also is collected for the unemployed on the industry and occupation of the last job they held if applicable , how long they have been looking for work, their reason for being jobless for example, did they lose or quit their job , and their job search methods.
As mentioned previously, the labor force is made up of the employed and the unemployed. The remainder—those who have no job and are not looking for one—are counted as not in the labor force. Many who are not in the labor force are going to school or are retired.
Family responsibilities keep others out of the labor force. Since the mids, typically fewer than 1 in 10 people not in the labor force reported that they want a job. A series of questions is asked each month of persons not in the labor force to obtain information about their desire for work, the reasons why they had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks, their prior job search, and their availability for work.
These questions include the following the bolded words are emphasized when read by the interviewers. These questions form the basis for estimating the number of people who are not in the labor force but who are considered to be marginally attached to the labor force. These are individuals without jobs who are not currently looking for work and therefore are not counted as unemployed , but who nevertheless have demonstrated some degree of labor force attachment.
Specifically, to be counted as marginally attached to the labor force, they must indicate that they currently want a job, have looked for work in the last 12 months or since they last worked if they worked within the last 12 months , and are available for work.
Discouraged workers are a subset of the marginally attached. Discouraged workers report they are not currently looking for work for one of the following types of reasons:.
When the population is classified according to who is employed, unemployed, and not in the labor force on the basis of their activities during a given calendar week, situations are often encountered where individuals have engaged in more than one activity. Since individuals are counted only once, a system of priorities is used to determine their status.
Labor force activities take precedence over non-labor force activities, and working or having a job takes precedence over looking for work. Some hypothetical examples are:. To summarize, the employed are: All those who did any work for pay or profit during the survey reference week. All those who did at least 15 hours of unpaid work in a business or farm operated by a family member with whom they live.
All those who were temporarily absent from their regular jobs because of illness, vacation, bad weather, labor dispute, or various personal reasons, whether or not they were paid for the time off. The unemployed are: All those who did not have a job at all during the survey reference week, made at least one specific active effort to find a job during the prior 4 weeks, and were available for work unless temporarily ill.
All those who were not working and were waiting to be called back to a job from which they had been laid off. They need not be looking for work to be classified as unemployed. Because of the wide variety of employment arrangements and job seeking methods found in the U. When all of the details are considered, the definitions may seem rather complicated. The basic concepts, however, remain little changed since the inception of the CPS in People with jobs are employed , people who do not have jobs and are looking for jobs are unemployed , and people who meet neither labor market test are not in the labor force.
Other important labor market statistics are developed using the basic survey estimates of people employed, unemployed, and not in the labor force. These statistics include: The number of people in the labor force. This measure is the sum of the employed and the unemployed.
In other words, the labor force level is the number of people who are either working or actively seeking work. The national unemployment rate. Perhaps the most widely known labor market indicator, this statistic reflects the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the labor force. The labor force participation rate. This measure is the number of people in the labor force as a percentage of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years old and over.
In other words, it is the percentage of the population that is either working or actively seeking work. The employment-population ratio. This measure is the number of employed as a percentage of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years old and over. In other words, it is the percentage of the population that is currently working. Each month, national summary statistics on unemployment and employment are published in a news release titled The Employment Situation. The dates of release are announced in advance and made available on the BLS release calendar.
Detailed information also is published in tables online and in numerous news releases and reports. Historical data series can be obtained from various database tools. Total employment and unemployment are higher in some parts of the year than in others. Compared to other labor force statistics, the underemployment rate is relatively new; the census only began to track underemployment as it is currently measured in The lack of historical data can make it difficult to put current numbers in context with past labor market performance.
The Employment-to-Population Ratio is a useful, broad-brush measure. It simply shows the number of people currently employed as a share of the total working-age population, which is the number of civilian, non-institutionalized persons, age 16 and over.
This measure does not typically change dramatically from month to month, but even minor changes help identify which segments of the population are experiencing the most job loss or gain. This ratio also compliments the unemployment rate in assessing the health of the labor market. The unemployment rate has shortcomings that the employment-to-population ratio does not.
As mentioned above, the unemployment rate is affected by the size of the labor force. As the labor market falters, the unemployment rate may actually fall if workers give up looking for work, and as the labor market is recovering, unemployment can rise because more people are entering the labor force as they start to look for work again. The employment-to-population ratio, because it is unaffected by voluntary changes in labor force participation, is a useful indicator of current labor market conditions.
Lows in the employment-to- population ratio correspond with economic downturns. The employment-to-population ratio holds clear and discernible implications for the labor market, both among and between segments of the population. The Labor Force Participation Rate shows the number of people in the labor force—defined as the sum of employed and unemployed persons—as a share of the total working-age population, which is the number of civilian, non-institutionalized people, age 16 and over.
It is similar to the employment-to-population ratio but different in one important aspect: it includes the numbers of people with a job as well as the number actively looking for work. Month-to-month changes in the employed and unemployed in the labor force are relatively small compared to the size of the entire working-age population.
Although minor changes in the labor force participation rate can be informative, it is often used to study long-term trends among different segments of the population. Comparing different segments of the population helps show where the labor market succeeds or fails in incorporating the working-age population.
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